The ‘Farlain Lake Systems Model’ FLSM is an ‘agent‑based model’ (ABM) that is structured to incorporate system components about the lake basin (e.g., see Outline 1 below). The model runs simulations of the complex interaction of factors in the system that may assist in explaining the change in lake water levels and assisting with the “what-ifs” in predicting levels. This information may then be analyzed and mapped to assist with flooding mitigation ‘if & where’ as needed.

Outline 1
Example structure of the model, where water level is one component of the overall system:
├── Climate
├── Watershed
├── Groundwater
├── Surface Water
├── Lake Level
├── Shoreline Processes
└── Management Scenarios

Farlain Lake Systems Model (FLSM) – modules:

├── Climate Module
├── Snowpack Module
├── Watershed Runoff Module
├── Groundwater Module
├── Lake Storage & Water Balance Module
├── Storage–Elevation Module
├── Shoreline Impact Module
├── Water Quality Module
├── Scenario & Climate Change Module
└── Visualization Dashboard

*** Regarding the ‘Storage–Elevation Module‘ and the ‘Shoreline Impact Module‘:
The first answers the scientific question, “What is the lake elevation?” The second answers the question most important to residents and decision-makers: “What does that elevation mean for flooding, erosion, septic systems, docks, etc?”

The first module being worked is the:

• Lake Storage & Water Balance Module
  which computes:$$\Delta S = P + R + G_{in} – (E + G_{out})$$where:
  • $\Delta S$ = change in lake storage.
  • $P$ = precipitation,
  • $R$ = runoff and stream inflow,
  • $G_{in}$ = groundwater inflow,
  • $E$ = evaporation,
  • $G_{out}$​ = groundwater outflow,

The Lake Storage & Water Balance Module calculates changes in the volume of water stored within Farlain Lake by accounting for all significant inflows and outflows. Because residents observe changes in lake elevation rather than water volume, the calculated storage is converted to lake elevation using the lake’s storage–elevation relationship (also known as the stage–storage relationship). This allows the model to predict lake elevations and assess shoreline flooding while ensuring that every change in water level is physically explained by the balance between water entering, leaving, and being stored within the lake.
This part of the model does not “make” (or predict) water levels – it explains them.

Note: The web‑based version of the FLSM is available for anyone to explore. The web version lets you set the variable – for example, lake level, rain, run-off, evaporation, and how long you want the model to run for (in increments of time).
The model will have a short learning video to walk you through how it works (under construction)